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SUPER TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) UPDATE NUMBER 018


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WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 018

Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 02 Dec 2012
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 02 Dec 2012
Bopha reaches Super Typhoon intensity...moving dangerously towards the Republic of Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or early tonight.

Important Note: This howler is similar in strength and track of Super Typhoon Mike (Ruping) which passed over Palau in November 1990. Please take all precautionary measures on this extremely dangerous cyclone Refer to your national disaster coordinating councils for more details.

Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia and the Philippines (particularly the Republic of Palau, Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region) should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 am today, the pinhole eye of Super Typhoon Bopha was located over Western Micronesia...about 433 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,430 km east-southeast of Siargao Island, Surigao Del Norte...currently moving faster west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of the Republic of Palau.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers. Bopha is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (310 mm).


3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Super Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours while maintaining its forward speed...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass over or very close to Palau Islands early this evening between 7:00-8:00 am Philippine Time...and could be over or very close to Surigao City and Siargao Islands on Tuesday afternoon around sunset. Bopha may start to traverse Central Visayas Tuesday evening, passing in between Bohol and Southern Leyte...and cross Central Cebu after midnight on Wednesday...and over Negros Oriental very near Sagay and Cadiz Cities around sunrise on Wednesday.

Bopha will continue gaining strength during the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Category 5 Super Typhoon. A decrease in its strength is forecast beginning Tuesday morning as Bopha moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures and begin interaction with the land mass of Mindanao and the Visayas on Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its Super Typhoon status as it moves across the Philippine Sea, away from the Republic of Palau...about 144 km west of Koror [5AM DEC 03: 7.3N 133.2E @ 240kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it approaches the coastal areas of Surigao Provinces, Northern Mindanao...about 198 km east-northeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [5AM DEC 04: 8.8N 128.0E @ 220kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon as it traverses Central Visayas or in the vicinity of Negros Oriental...about 33 km south of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental [5AM DEC 05: 10.7N 123.3E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

PINHOLE EYE - over water (Western Micronesia)...but will reach the southern shores of Palau later tonight. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...but the northern part of the eyewall will reach the Republic of Palau before or after sunset.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Western Micronesia...will reach Palau later this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Republic of Palau, Yap and Ulithi Islands and other smaller islands of Western and Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the Republic of Palau. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Eastern Mindanao and the Marianas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun December 02, 2012
Class/Name: STY Bopha (26W)
Location of Eye: 5.9º N Lat 138.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 354 km (E) from the PAR
Distance 2: 400 km (S) from Colonia, Yap
Distance 3: 433 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,330 km (ESE) from Mati City, PH
Distance 5: 1,338 km (ESE) from Bislig City, PH
Distance 6: 1,430 km (ESE) from Siargao Is., PH
Distance 7: 1,464 km (ESE) from Surigao City, PH
Distance 8: 1,542 km (SE) from Borongan City, PH
Distance 9: 1,566 km (SE) from Tacloban City, PH
Distance 10: 1,785 km (SE) from Legazpi City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Republic of Palau
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [310 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)


Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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