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Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) Update Number 009



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 009

Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thursday 07 November 2013
Next Update: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Thursday 07 November 2013
Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) has maintained its strength as it moves closer endangering the Visayas including Masbate. The potential landfall area of this super typhoon is likely along the eastern coast of Northern Leyte or Southern Samar on Friday morning.

Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track but more powerful in strength of Super Typhoon MIKE (RUPING) which passed across the Visayas on November 12, 1990 which devastated much of Central Visayas paricularly Cebu.

Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should continue monitoring the approach of this destructive typhoon for possible unprecendented track changes. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be completed as soon as possible as the dangerous cyclone is only 12 hours away from hitting land.


Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Haiyan.


Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 570 km southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 670 km east-southeast of Metro Cebu...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Leyte and Southern Samar Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 280 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers from the center. STY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to move fast in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the central-eastern shores of Leyte, about 55 km south of Tacloban City between 9-10 AM Friday and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City just before noontime Friday. This Super Typhoon will be passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around 12 NN when it will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas through Friday afternoon,...across Northern Panay (very close to Roxas City and Boracay) late Friday afternoon...and will be in the vicinity of Coron, Palawan by Friday midnight. On Saturday afernoon, Haiyan (Yolanda) will be about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to gradually weaken within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 215 km/hr by Saturday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon...approaching the eastern coast of Leyte...about 90 km east-southeast of Roxas City, Capiz [2PM NOV 08: 11.3N 123.5E @ 250kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea...weakens further after traversing Northern Visayas and the Calamian Group of Islands...about 560 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [2PM NOV 09: 13.2N 115.2E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over the western part of the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 75 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [2PM NOV 10: 16.1N 108.9E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

30-KM ROUND EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas beginning tonight through Friday morning. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
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Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Nov 07, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (YOLANDA)
Location of Eye: Near 9.8º N Lat 130.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 440 km E of Siargao Island
Distance 2: 540 km SE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 570 km SE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 670 km ESE of Metro Cebu
Distance 5: 680 km E of Tagbilaran City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 280 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 335 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Leyte-Southern Samar Area
CPA [ETA] to Leyte: Friday Morning [between 9-10AM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)


Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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