Tropical Depression 20W (PAOLO) Update Number 001



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (PAOLO) UPDATE NUMBER 001

Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Friday 27 September 2013
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the West Philippine Sea, west of Zambales has strengthened into Tropical Depression 20W (PAOLO)...moving very slowly west-northwest across the open sea away from Luzon...likely to threaten Vietnam early next week.

This depression will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across the western sections of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Spratly Islands and CaLaBaRZon today. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W - a newly-formed system located off the Caroline Islands and Western Micronesia Area has been rapidly consolidating. Its center was located about 1,205 km ENE of Surigao City or 185 km WNW of Yap Island (10.0N Lat 136.5E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...currently moving WNW at 11 kph. Various forecast models suggest this system could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours with a northward track across the Philippine Sea...and is not yet a threat to the Philippines. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.


Residents and visitors along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of 20W (Paolo).


Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TD 20W (Paolo) was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 320 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales or 985 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving west-northwest with a slow forward speed of 05 km/hr towards Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 20W (Paolo) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TD 20W (Paolo) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the west to west-southwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 20W (Paolo) will be moving over the western part of the South China Sea, east of Central Vietnam thru Sunday.

TD 20W (Paolo) will slightly gain strength during the next 24 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) early Saturday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 km/hr on Sunday early morning.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal TS as it moves across the central part of the South China Sea...about 490 km west-northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [5AM SEP 28: 16.2N 115.7E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies as it turns slightly west to west-southwest slowly across the South China Sea...about 600 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [5AM SEP 29: 15.8N 113.8E @ 85kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Strengthens to near-Typhoon status...moving closer to the coast of Central Vietnam...about 405 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam [5AM SEP 30: 15.9N 112.0E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central portion of the West Philippine Sea and Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 20W (Paolo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 27, 2013
Class/Name: TD 20W (Paolo)
Location of Center: Near 15.5º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km WNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 315 km WSW of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 320 km WNW of Subic Bay
Distance 4: 410 km WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 985 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph
Towards: Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 5 feet


Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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