Tropical Storm KONG-REY (NANDO) Update Number 002



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY (NANDO) UPDATE NUMBER 002

Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 August 2013
KONG-REY (NANDO) has strengthened overnight...now a Tropical Storm (TS) as it crawls over the Philippine Sea, east of Cagayan...continues to threaten Batanes and Taiwan. Its rainbands spreading across Northern Luzon.

This storm will continue to induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with "on-and-off" slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of Luzon including Bicol Region...becoming more frequent along MiMaRoPa (Mindoro-Marinduque-Romblon-Palawan), CaLaBaRZon (Cavite-Laguna-Batangas-Rizal-Quezon), Bataan, Zambales, Pangasinan, Ilocos Region, and Metro Manila today until Wednesday. The threat of Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Yaeyama-Miyako Islands, and Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Kong-Rey (Nando).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Kong-Rey (Nando) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 170 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 330 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving north-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 09 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . Kong-Rey (Nando) remains an aversge-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Kong-Rey (Nando) is expected to continue moving north-northwest during the next 24 hours, with a northerly turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Kong-Rey (Nando) will be passing close to the east of Batanes Islands on Wednesday morning...and will be near the east coast of Taiwan by Thursday morning.

TS Kong-Rey (Nando) will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Kong-Rey (Nando) reaching its highest sustained winds of 95 km/hr by Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Passing close to the east of Batanes Islands...continues to intensify...about 85 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [5AM AUG 28: 20.7N 122.8E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies further while passing near the east coast of Taiwan...about 130 km east-southeast of Hualien, Taiwan [5AM AUG 29: 23.6N 122.8E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it accelerates across the East China Sea...strengthens to near-Typhoon intensity...about 245 km north of Ishigakijima, Japan [5AM AUG 30: 26.7N 124.0E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Isabela and Cagayan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Luzon including Calayan and Babuyan Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 27, 2013
Class/Name: TS Kong-Rey (Nando)
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 170 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 175 km NE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 215 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 215 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 220 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 330 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 470 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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