TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 031



WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 031

Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 06 Dec 2012
Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) losing strength over the West Philippine Sea...slowed down during the past 12 hours.


Residents and visitors along Palawan, Vietnam and Western Luzon should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 286 km northwest of San Vicente, Palawan or 291 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 9 km/hr in the general direction of the West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (500 mm).


3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn west-northwestward for the next 24 hours with a rapid decrease in its forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to continue moving farther away from Northern Palawan...and will be over the West Philippine Sea until Sunday as it is predicted to slow down or remain almost stationary.

Bopha will slightly re-intensify during the next one to two days, as the system encounters some warm temperatures off the West Philippine Sea. However, this typhoon may dissipate after 2 days due to the surge of cool and dry air, brought about by the northeast monsoon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Moving northwest farther away from Northern Palawan towards the West Philippine Sea...re-intensifies...about 476 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 07: 12.9N 115.9E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintain its strength as it slows down further while over the West Philippine Sea...about 563 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 08: 13.5N 115.0E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Just drifting very slowly or quasi-stationary over the West Philippine Sea...weakens to a Tropical Storm...about 615 km west of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 09: 13.8N 114.5E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu December 06, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Center: 11.9º N Lat 117.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 286 km (NW) from San Vicente, Palawan
Distance 2: 289 km (WNW) from Taytay, Palawan
Distance 3: 291 km (WNW) from El Nido, Palawan
Distance 4: 301 km (NW) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 5: 337 km (W) from Coron, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 09 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)


Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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