Typhoon DANAS (RAMIL) Update Number 002



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON DANAS (RAMIL) UPDATE NUMBER 002

Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Tuesday 08 October 2013
Typhoon DANAS (RAMIL) has weakened but remains dangerous...as it moves poleward across the eastern portion of the East China Sea threatening further Kyushu and South Korea Area.



Residents and visitors along Kyushu and Southern South Korea should closely monitor the development of DANAS (Ramil).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of TY Danas (Ramil) was located over the East China Sea...about 280 km south-southeast of Jeju Island or 360 km southwest of Sasebo City...currently moving north with a very fast forward speed of 41 km/hr towards South Korea-Kyushu Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Danas (Ramil) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation to the south and near the center of Danas (Ramil) is estimated to be heavy (150 mm).


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Danas (Ramil) is expected to move north-northeast during the next 12 hours then turns to the northeast through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Danas (Ramil) will be moving over the Pacific Ocean by Thursday morning.

TY Danas (Ramil) will continue to lose strength during the next 24 through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds reduce to just 55 km/hr on Thursday morning. The weakening of Danas (Ramil) in the next couple of days is due to its movement across cooler sea surface temperatures (lower heat content).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm as it crosses South Korea-Kyushu Area...moving towards Sea of Japan...about 190 km north of Hiroshima City [5AM OCT 09: 36.1N 132.4E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens further and becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...as it traverses Northern Honshu towards the Pacific Ocean...about 395 km east-southeast of Sapporo City [5AM OCT 10: 41.3N 145.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 km ...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over Central East China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Central East China Sea. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central East China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Portion East China Sea, Western Kyushu and Southern Islands of South Korea. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 75 mm (slight to moderate rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 76 to 150 mm (moderate to heavy) along areas to the south and near the center of Danas (Ramil).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Kyushu today. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Kyushu and Southern South Korea (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 08, 2013
Class/Name: TY Danas (Ramil)
Location of Eye: Near 30.8º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km SSE of Jeju Island
Distance 2: 360 km SW of Sasebo City
Distance 3: 345 km WSW of Kagoshima City
Distance 4: 345 km SW of Nagasaki City
Distance 5: 513 km SSW of Pusan City, South Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: N @ 41 kph
Towards: South Korea-Kyushu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 610 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 50 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)


Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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